Tight Race in Florida: Trump Leads Harris by Slim Margin as Abortion Rights Take Center Stage
A new poll shows that former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim margin of just two points in Florida, suggesting that the race for the state in November could be closer than expected. The Morning Consult poll, released on Monday, shows Trump with 49% support and Harris with 47%, well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus two points.
Previously, The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average had shown Trump ahead by a slightly wider margin of 3.3 points. Another poll, conducted by The Hill and Emerson College last week, also reflected a tight race, with Trump leading Harris by five points, still within the margin of error.
Meanwhile, Florida’s Senate race is also heating up. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott currently leads his Democratic challenger, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, by five points. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s average gives Scott a three-point lead, signaling a competitive race.
These numbers highlight Florida’s status as a battleground state, despite its recent trend toward Republican dominance. The state has a history of tight elections, with former President Barack Obama being the last Democrat to win Florida, edging out a narrow victory in 2012. Since then, Trump won Florida by just over a point in 2016 and by more than three points in 2020. The Republican Party further solidified its control in the 2022 midterms, achieving sweeping victories across the state, even as Republicans elsewhere struggled.
Despite this Republican momentum, the Harris campaign has been making strategic investments in Florida, particularly focusing on abortion rights, a significant issue in the upcoming election. Harris recently launched a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour, which included a stop in Trump’s hometown of Palm Beach. The tour comes as Florida voters prepare to weigh in on Amendment 4, a measure that would protect abortion rights in the state’s constitution. Polling from The Hill and Emerson College last week indicated that 55% of likely Florida voters support Amendment 4, while 26% oppose it. The amendment will need 60% of the vote to pass.
Florida’s political landscape is often unpredictable, and its status as a hub for business and tourism means that the economic stakes are high in any election. With a large and diverse population, the state serves as a microcosm of the broader national issues at play, making it a key battleground for both parties. As businesses and industries in Florida continue to thrive, particularly in sectors like tourism, healthcare, agriculture, and legal services such as Florida Probate Attorneys, the outcome of this closely watched election could significantly impact the state’s economic future.
The Morning Consult poll, conducted between August 30 and September 8, 2024, surveyed 3,076 likely Florida voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
